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Jan 28, 2019

US economic data heavily in focus during the trading week ahead

US data watch

During the upcoming trading week traders and investors look to the US Nonfarm Payrolls job report for the month of January and the FOMC interest rate decision for direction. The FOMC is widely tipped to keep rates on hold and maintain a wait-and-see approach, while the American economy is forecasted to have created 168,000 new jobs last month as US hiring stabilizes following December’s seasonal job spike.

We also have a key interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia this week, while British Prime Minister Theresa May attempts to pass her Brexit Plan B deal through Parliament. This week we also have a host of global PMI manufacturing data being released and key GDP data for the fourth fiscal quarter from the eurozone economy.

 

Monday 28th January, EUR ECB President Mario Draghi Speech

Following last weeks ECB interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a keynote speech before the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium on Monday. If the ECB President sounds more dovish on the eurozone economy, the euro currency will likely trade lower. If the ECB President sounds more upbeat about the eurozone economy, it may have a positive effect on the euro currency.

  • The EURUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.1410 level, key support is found at the 1.1360 and 1.1300 levels.
  • If the EURUSD pair moves above the 1.1410 level, buyers may test towards the 1.1460 and 1.1580 resistance levels.

 

Tuesday 29th January, GBP UK Parliament Plan B Brexit Vote

On Tuesday UK Parliament will vote on whether British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit Plan B is valid or not. The vote marks the second vote in two weeks after UK Parliament rejected PM May’s first deal. The British Pound is likely to become increasingly volatile before and after the vote, as the chances of a hard Brexit will increase exponentially if the proposed Brexit Plan B is rejected.

  • The GBPUSD pair is strongly bullish while trading above the 1.3095 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3250 and 1.3315 levels.
  • If the GBPUSD pair moves below the 1.3095 level,  sellers may test towards the 1.3000 and 1.2910 levels.

                                            



Wednesday 30th January, AUD RBA Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia is the central monetary authority for the Australian economy and sets the nations interest rate and the overnight market funds rate. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged this month, maintaining the nations interest rate at a record low, 1.50 per cent. Market participants will be generally wary that the RBA will start to become more dovish, heightening the chances of a potential rate cut this year.

  • The AUDUSD pair is strongly bearish while trading below the 0.7110 level, key support is found at the 0.7000 and 0.6930 levels.
  • If the AUDUSD pair moves above the 0.7110 level, buyers may test towards the 0.7230 and 0.7345 levels.

 

Thursday, 31st January, EUR Eurozone Q4 GDP

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product is released by Eurostat and measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the overall eurozone economy. Gross Domestic Product is considered a reliable indicator that shows the economic activity and overall health of a economy. The eurozone economy is expected to have expanded 1.2 per cent during the fourth quarter, which is worse than 1.6 per cent figure seen during the same period a year ago.

  • The EURGBP pair is bearish while trading below the 0.8710 level, further losses towards the 0.8600 and 0.8550 support levels seems possible.
  • If the EURGBP pair moves above the 0.8710 level, buyers may test towards the 0.8760 and 0.8815 resistance levels.

 

Friday 1st February, USD Nonfarm Payrolls Job Report

The NFP job report shows the monthly change in employment in the American economy, excluding the farming sector. Non-farm payrolls is the most carefully observed indicator in the employment situation inside the United States. It is considered the most inclusive calculation of job creation, which causes the Nonfarm Payrolls Job report to become highly significant to market participants, due to the great importance of labour in the United States economy.

  • The USDJPY pair is only bullish while trading above the 110.20 level, further upside towards 110.80 and 111.30 levels remains possible.
  • If the USDJPY pair trades below the 109.00 level, sellers are likely to test the 108.10 and 107.20 support levels.

 

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