USD/INR seen at 84.00 by year-end – MUFG

Last week, the USD/INR hit a new record high at 83.28, before pulling back under 82.50. Analysts at MUFG Bank continue to see weakness ahead for the Indian rupee and see USD/INR at 84.00 by year-end. 

Key Quotes:

“USD/INR volatility picked up last week after it rose to a record high of 83.29 versus its Mumbai close at 82.35 on 14 October. The INR’s depreciation to new record lows against the USD last week was mainly driven by stronger USD demand by oil importers. According to newswires, the RBI may have sold off USD1 bn last Thursday to bring USD/INR back below 83.00.”

“We maintain our view that the sharp decline in foreign reserves by around USD101 bn so far this year limits the scope for aggressive RBI intervention in the near term, with future rounds of intervention to be done sporadically. This puts more upside risks to USD/INR particularly during bouts of USD strength.” 

“We are maintaining our year-end USD/INR forecast at 84.00. For the week ahead. 83.00 is likely to be the first level of topside resistance for USD/INR, followed by 83.50.”