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21 Jun 2013
Flash: UK GDP 2013 forecast climbs to +1.1% – RBS
FXstreet.com (New York) - According to the RBS Research Team, “We have revised up our UK GDP forecast for 2013 to 1.1% from 0.8% – with modest upside risks around this central projection.”
The 2014 forecast is unrevised at 1.5%. These rates of expansion remain below long-run averages as the belated improvement in various high-frequency indicators does not, in our judgment, outweigh the impact of the UK's protracted deleveraging and structural rebalancing.
Moreover, “a pick-up in GDP on this scale is unlikely to prompt any pre-emptive withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus given the moderate fiscal policy tightening and the revised MPC remit which makes clear the Bank's scope to tolerate any ongoing inflation overshoot.” the team adds.
The 2014 forecast is unrevised at 1.5%. These rates of expansion remain below long-run averages as the belated improvement in various high-frequency indicators does not, in our judgment, outweigh the impact of the UK's protracted deleveraging and structural rebalancing.
Moreover, “a pick-up in GDP on this scale is unlikely to prompt any pre-emptive withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus given the moderate fiscal policy tightening and the revised MPC remit which makes clear the Bank's scope to tolerate any ongoing inflation overshoot.” the team adds.