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3 Sep 2015
AUD/USD dumps; tests solid 0.7000 bulls on more dire data
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD was walking along the offer in the lead-up to the retail sales data away from the resistance of the hourly 50 SMA at 0.7045. On the release of the data, the pair fell 30 pips to test the commitment of the bulls at the0.7000 handle, with an immediate low of 0.7009.
This weak retail sales data of -0.1% vs +0.4% expected comes after the Aussie was pressured lower yesterday from the weak GDP Q2 outcome that reinforced concerns over the negative fallout impact from weakening growth in Asia.
The data yesterday revealed that Australia's economy slowed more sharply than expected expanding by just 0.2% in Q2 following a robust expansion of 0.9% in Q1. Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG who expects the Australian dollar to extend its weakness as a result, noted that the annual rate of real GDP growth eased to 2.0% which was the slowest pace since Q3 2013.
We will now await the outcome of the Nonfarm Payrolls data at the end of the trading week for further direction in the pair, while markets are starting to price out a Fed rate hike for 2015 vs the ongoing turmoil and uncertainty that persists with the global implications of the negativity surrounding the Chinese economy pressuring the Aussie. The IMF recently wrote a paper on the Global risks in the lead up to the ECB tomorrow.
While the RBA has stayed the course this month around, their hand may be forced before the year is out to act to help secure the economy from such headwinds that weigh on the outlook for a weaker Aussie going forward, especially with the build-up of negative data that we are since starting to see from the economy, and this data is another sign that the economy is indeed feeling the pinch of the Big Panda.
AUD/USD levels
The key levels are a break below 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6900 and on to Jan 2009 congestion and 0.6776 June 2004 lows. To the upside immediate resistance comes at the hourly 50 SMA at 0.7050.
This weak retail sales data of -0.1% vs +0.4% expected comes after the Aussie was pressured lower yesterday from the weak GDP Q2 outcome that reinforced concerns over the negative fallout impact from weakening growth in Asia.
The data yesterday revealed that Australia's economy slowed more sharply than expected expanding by just 0.2% in Q2 following a robust expansion of 0.9% in Q1. Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG who expects the Australian dollar to extend its weakness as a result, noted that the annual rate of real GDP growth eased to 2.0% which was the slowest pace since Q3 2013.
We will now await the outcome of the Nonfarm Payrolls data at the end of the trading week for further direction in the pair, while markets are starting to price out a Fed rate hike for 2015 vs the ongoing turmoil and uncertainty that persists with the global implications of the negativity surrounding the Chinese economy pressuring the Aussie. The IMF recently wrote a paper on the Global risks in the lead up to the ECB tomorrow.
While the RBA has stayed the course this month around, their hand may be forced before the year is out to act to help secure the economy from such headwinds that weigh on the outlook for a weaker Aussie going forward, especially with the build-up of negative data that we are since starting to see from the economy, and this data is another sign that the economy is indeed feeling the pinch of the Big Panda.
AUD/USD levels
The key levels are a break below 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6900 and on to Jan 2009 congestion and 0.6776 June 2004 lows. To the upside immediate resistance comes at the hourly 50 SMA at 0.7050.