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16 Sep 2015
UK: Strong employment numbers support rate hike expectations - ING
FXStreet (Delhi) – James Knightley, Research Analyst at ING, suggests that the UK labour report for September is reasonably strong with employment rising 42,000 in the three months to July. As such, from a purely domestic viewpoint we still see a strong chance of a February rate rise – the risks of a delay are external, he further adds.
Key Quotes
“This is versus a couple of negative readings in the last couple of reports, which we attribute to the uncertainty over the May General Election outcome having made business cautious on hiring. The number of people unemployed rose by 10,000, which taken together leaves the unemployment rate at 5.5%.”
“Encouragingly, average regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose 2.9%YoY, the fastest rate since January 2009, while pay including bonuses was also up 2.9%YoY.”
“The private sector is obviously leading the way given the ongoing clampdown on public sector pay awards. Excluding bonuses, private sector pay growth rose 3.7%YoY in July, averaging 3.4% over the past three months.”
“With headline CPI running at zero and employment rising again we are seeing quite substantial increases in real household disposable incomes for this group. Consequently, it isn’t surprising that consumer confidence is at 15 year highs and the outlook for consumer spending remains very strong.”
Key Quotes
“This is versus a couple of negative readings in the last couple of reports, which we attribute to the uncertainty over the May General Election outcome having made business cautious on hiring. The number of people unemployed rose by 10,000, which taken together leaves the unemployment rate at 5.5%.”
“Encouragingly, average regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose 2.9%YoY, the fastest rate since January 2009, while pay including bonuses was also up 2.9%YoY.”
“The private sector is obviously leading the way given the ongoing clampdown on public sector pay awards. Excluding bonuses, private sector pay growth rose 3.7%YoY in July, averaging 3.4% over the past three months.”
“With headline CPI running at zero and employment rising again we are seeing quite substantial increases in real household disposable incomes for this group. Consequently, it isn’t surprising that consumer confidence is at 15 year highs and the outlook for consumer spending remains very strong.”