Gold holds tight above $1,400 as market weighs up 25 and 50 basis point cut scenarios

• Gold supported at the symmetrical triangle's prior resistance.
• Eyes on US data, (GDP), and geopolitics, Iran/US/China. 

Gold prices have entered the final hour of Wall Street's trade on Monday, around flat for the session at $1,427, having stuck to a tight $1,422 and $1,430 range for the day. The focus remains on the Federal reserve at the end of this month, as the market weighs up the odds of between the 25bp and 50bp cut scenarios. Precious metals are bound by the Dollar and risk sentiment also, with the latest developments in trade wars moving towards a stake mate once again between the US and China, with a particular focus on Iran also. 

 There were reports today that Iran had arrested 17 spies who the nation says were working for the CIA and sentenced some of them to death. Iran's intelligence ministry had said the suspects had been collecting information in the nuclear, military and other sectors:

• US Pres. Trump: getting harder to ‘want to make a deal on Iran’

With respect to the trade wars, Reuters reported earlier today that U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he believed Chinese President Xi Jinping has acted “very responsibly” with the protests in Hong Kong over an extradition bill that could see people from the territory sent to China for trial. 

"We’re working on trade deals right now. We’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

"The yellow metal will likely trade choppy between $1390-1440/oz as this week's economic data and equity earnings influence market interest rate expectations one way or the other. But we ultimately see any dips in gold as buying opportunities as the underlying growth trajectory remains on a slowing path and as global central banks opt for easier policy," analysts at TD Securities explained. 

Eyes on US data, (GDP)

From here, markets will be watching economic data this week, (Gross Domestic Produce), as Fed speakers go into the blackout ahead of the July FOMC meeting.

"We expect GDP to advance a near-trend 2.0% q/q saar in Q2, down from a strong 3.1% print in Q1. Unlike the prior quarter, we expect consumer spending to be a key engine of growth, rebounding to about 4% after a wobbly start to the year. Business investment, however, continued to slow due to heightened uncertainty while inventories and net exports were likely a drag on growth,"

analysts at TD Securities explained. 

Gold levels

Meanwhile, the price continues to skid along with the symmetrical triangle's prior resistance following a breakout through the 1450 level and a fade back to the symmetrical triangle where price consolidates around 1430  as a key support level again. If the price breaks below 1420/25, bears will then look for a run below the 1400 psychological level. The 23.6% Fibo of the latest swing lows and highs are located at 1398. The $1,373/76 zone comes into play there after which meets the 19th June spike correction lows and the 38.2% Fibo of the same swing ranges.