NFP Preview: USD and stocks focus on new closures and pandemic development

Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to increase by 3 million jobs. The US dollar, which has retreated from its two-week rally, and equities, that have just closed their best quarter in decades, are set to be moved by the pandemic development rather than economic stats, FXStreet’s analyst Joseph Trevisani briefs.

Key quotes

“National payrolls are forecast to rise 3 million in June after May’s 2.509 million gain and April’s 20.687 loss. The spread in the predictions from 405,000 to 9,000,000, is unusually wide.”

“The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 12.3% from 13.3% in May and 14.7% in April. Annual average hourly earnings should fall to 5.3% from 6.7% in May and 8% in April as lower-paid workers return to their jobs. Wages will drop 0.7% after the 1% decline in May while average weekly hours will slip to 34.5 in June from 34.7.”

“The unexpected May addition to NFP payrolls, the revision to the ADP number bringing it into line with the national figures and the June 2.4 million gain in private payrolls places the risk for June Non-farm payrolls firmly on the positive side.”

“The rise in US virus cases had brought on a mild degree of risk-aversion in currencies which has dissipated. It is unclear how much the new closures will impact the economy or where the pandemic is headed. On those two questions, more than on economic statistics will turn the immediate direction of the stocks and the dollar.”